By Manya Saini and Nupur Anand
(Reuters) -JPMorgan Chase raised its full-year forecast for net interest income on Tuesday, after strong investment banking and trading performance helped it beat third-quarter profit expectations.
Economic resilience despite tariff war risks and hopes of U.S. interest rate cuts have prompted companies to strike big deals and consider stock offerings, lifting investment banking business across Wall Street, with dealmakers expecting an even stronger 2026.
“While there have been some signs of a softening, particularly in job growth, the U.S. economy generally remained resilient,” CEO Jamie Dimon said in a statement.
“However, there continues to be a heightened degree of uncertainty stemming from complex geopolitical conditions, tariffs and trade uncertainty, elevated asset prices and the risk of sticky inflation,” he added.
NII BOOST
Large banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America can help feel the pulse of the U.S. economy by offering insights into consumer spending, borrowing and business activity.
Net interest income, or the difference between what banks earn on loans and pay out on deposits, continues to prop up industry earnings.
JPMorgan revised its interest income forecast for the year. It now expects NII of roughly $95.8 billion for 2025, compared with an earlier $95.5 billion. It had raised its forecast in July as well.
Analysts on average had expected $95.4 billion, according to estimates compiled by LSEG.
Industry executives have said consumers remain in good financial shape, helped by the strong labor market and rising wages. That has also meant regular debt payments and steady demand for new loans.
At JPMorgan, NII rose 2% in the third quarter to $24.1 billion. Meanwhile, for the fourth quarter, it expects its interest income to be $23.5 billion, excluding markets.
As the government shutdown delays the release of key economic indicators, investors will scrutinize Dimon’s remarks for his insight on the economy.
It reported a profit of $5.07 per share for the third quarter, comfortably surpassing estimates of $4.84 per share, according to estimates compiled by LSEG.
Shares of the bank rose 0.6% in trading before the bell.
WALL STREET OPERATIONS SHINE
Corporate dealmaking has picked up sharply this year after a brief slowdown in April as corporates look to take advantage of a booming stock market.
Investment banking fees at JPMorgan rose 16% in the third quarter. Meanwhile, trading revenue also soared at a time when economic uncertainty remains.
JPMorgan collected the most investment banking fees among its rivals so far this year, according to analytics firm Dealogic.
The bank’s traders capitalized on clients repositioning their portfolios, even though the markets were less volatile than earlier quarters as tariff jitters eased.
Markets revenue rose 25% to $8.9 billion, with fixed income climbing 21% and equities up 33%.
Stocks hit all-time highs during the quarter, lifted by optimism around U.S. interest rate cuts and strong corporate earnings from top technology companies.
Looking ahead, uncertainty about interest rates and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown could reignite market volatility, benefiting Wall Street trading desks.
Earlier this week, JPMorgan announced plans to hire bankers and invest up to $10 billion in U.S. companies critical to national security and economic resilience as part of a broader $1.5 trillion pledge.
(Reporting by Manya Saini in Bengaluru and Nupur Anand in New York, editing by Lananh Nguyen and Anil D’Silva)
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